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Nintendo knows the PR hit for penalizing innocent customers would be pretty bad.
If a card ID is used by only two people I would expect it to be ignored, or if a device ID is only associated with one dupe card I would expect that to be ignored.
It’s the devices that use multiple dupe cards or the card IDs that are used by thousands of people that will get banned.
It will be interesting to see where they draw the line but its unlikely that they want too many false positives.
That would be the way one would expect Nintendo to react. but then again, it’s Nintendo, so who knows.